At the Bolin Centre “Climate Festival“, I gave a public lecture on climate and conflict. The topic is clearly of high interest – I generally present to smaller audiences than to the crowd that filled our large lecture hall for this event. The talk was also summarized in a brief at Biståndsdebatten.se, an online platform for discussions about aid and development issues.
I and Eric Sjöberg, an environmental economist colleague in the US, have investigated the influence on climate on conflict and cooperation in international river basins. Our results are now published as a working paper from the University of Utah. We find that effects are complex, but that more water availability generally is associated with more positive outcomes. You can find the paper at this link.
The results of our modeling of future Arctic river discharge change, and where to monitor it, is now online in Earth’s Future. The paper is open access and free to read for everyone. A nice end to the year!
On Thursday, Dec 15 at 9.15-9.30, I will have a talk at the AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco. This presentation is about work together with Richard Lammers and Alexander Shiklomanov at UNH, where we evaluate discharge changes in the pan-Arctic during this century. Our analysis is the first to present a detailed account of Arctic discharge changes based on hydrological modeling and multi-scenario data from CMIP5, the latest set of coordinated global climate model runs. We also devise a method to determine where stations should be placed to monitor these changes and identify a set of hot-spot areas. Hope to see you there (Moscone West 3005), and drop me a note if you want to meet at AGU!
The blog of AGU journal editors, the EOS Editors’ Vox, today highlights our JGR special issue from the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis. This is very timely as the White House hosted the Arctic Science Ministerial on the same day. Several of the key themes of the ministerial were prominent also in the AFS, particularly the extra-Arctic effects of freshwater change and the importance of data sharing. Hopefully, freshwater will in the future be an Arctic policy priority that reflects its scientific importance.
A number of colleagues and I have a new paper in Regional Environmental Change where we model sediment transport in the Brahmaputra river. We also evaluate what projected future changes to the climate may entail for the sediment load, and what data that must be improved first to reduce uncertainty. The paper is in press and can be found at this link.
At the ICRC-CORDEX conference on regional climate in Stockholm last week, I presented a poster based on our Earth’s Future paper Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins. I had interesting discussions with several people about the possibility of using global climate model output directly for hydrological impact studies.
The AFS Summary report is based on papers that have been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication in a Special Issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. These papers are the key scientific deliverables of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis project that I have co-chaired for the last couple of years.
One of the component papers of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, with a focus on terrestrial hydrology, is now out in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. A pdf of the accepted paper is also available here. In this paper, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydro-physiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system.